Weekly municipal fixed-income commentary focused on the National market.https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/en-ushttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-09-28/national/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-09-28/national/Treasuries posted their largest weekly selloff since last year's "Liberation Day," as a convergence of events raised inflation risk across the curve and pushed the long bond above 5.50% for the first time since 2004. Notably, bond yields began to decouple from oil prices last week, a sign that the repricing is now being driven by domestic growth and inflation dynamics rather than by geopolitics alone. The drivers were broad. Economic data remained strong, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking 5% growth for the third quarter. Hyperscaler capital expenditures have now exceeded, in inflation-adjusted terms, the amounts spent building the railroads and the electrical grid in U.S. history. Each of these pushed rates higher on its own; together they produced the sharpest weekly move of the year. Since Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on August 27, the 2-year Treasury is up roughly 60 bps and the 2s/30s curve has flattened by 30 bps. The strength of the data suggests the Fed may raise rates again at the October 28 FOMC meeting. Markets are currently pricing roughly 70% odds of a hike on October 28 and of two additional hikes by the end of January 2027.Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-09-21/national/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-09-21/national/Last week marked the seventh consecutive week of higher yields, as the 10-year Treasury closed above 5% for the first time since 2007. The seven-week run is the longest losing streak for Treasuries since 2011, and the 5% close on the benchmark note is a level that many investors have not seen in their careers. What began as an oil-driven inflation scare over the summer has become a sustained repricing of the entire curve. On Wednesday, the FOMC raised rates by 25 bps to a 3.75%-4.00% target range. The move itself was widely anticipated; the more consequential information came from the new dot plot, which implies another hike this year. Sixteen of the eighteen dots projected at least one more increase - an unusually broad consensus for a Committee that was split 9-3 as recently as July. The message is that this is not a one-and-done adjustment.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-09-14/national/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-09-14/national/A very bearish week in rates. The 2-year Treasury finished +26 bps higher and the 10-year +20 bps higher by week's end, while WTI crude rose above $100/bbl. August inflation pointed to reacceleration, with Core CPI printing +0.396% for the month. Core CPI feeds into PCE - the Fed's #1 inflation gauge - and PCE is not moving fast enough toward the 2.0% target. Energy prices are adding to the pressure: thus far in September, diesel has risen above $6/gal for the first time ever, and unleaded gasoline is +5% for the month. The last time 10-year yields were this high was October 2023, when the 10-year peaked at 5.02%, and before that June 2007, when it hit 5.29%.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-09-08/national/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-09-08/national/Renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to spike to $90/bbl for WTI, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.80% - its highest level since January 2025. Friday's August employment report came in stronger than forecast. Nonfarm payrolls rose +162K, and the prior two months were revised up by a combined 55K. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 4.09% to 4.14%. The 10-year again tested the 4.80% resistance level on the release, but yields fell back into the trading range once the market determined that wage growth was minimal and unlikely to add upward pressure to inflation.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-31/national/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-31/national/The market-moving event of last week occurred on Friday when Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Warsh struck a decidedly hawkish tone and opened the door explicitly for future rate hikes. He stated that inflation has been too high for the past four-plus years and that current rates are not restrictive enough to meaningfully impair borrowing or lending - despite the fact that the housing and agriculture sectors are already hurting. With year-over-year Core PCE at 3.7%, inflation remains far from the Fed's stated 2.0% target. The market interpreted his comments as a clear signal that the Fed is more likely to raise rates in the near term. The 2-year Treasury note fell 12 basis points in response - reflecting the repricing of short-term rate expectations - while the long bond dropped only 1 basis point, a curve-flattening reaction consistent with a market pricing in tighter policy. The probability of a September 16th rate hike rose from 30% to over 50% on the speech alone.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-24/national/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-24/national/Long-term Treasury yields continued to rise to 20-year highs, with the long bond peaking at a 5.33% yield on Tuesday after the U.S. national debt broke through $40 trillion. Debt service on the national debt now exceeds $1 trillion annually - more than the entire defense budget and nearly as much as Medicare. The growing allocation of tax dollars to interest payments rather than domestic programs has become a structural force driving long-end yields higher. On Wednesday morning, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the Treasury would double the size of its longer-maturity debt buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion for the current debt funding quarter, effective September 9 through November 4. The Administration has advocated that interest rates are too high, and this buyback expansion is a policy tool intended to lower long-term rates. In theory, the action should flatten the yield curve - creating more demand for long maturities while increasing supply of shorter maturities and T-bills to fund the purchases. Initially the news rallied the long bond yield down to 5.18%, but by week's end the market sold off and the long bond closed at 5.28%. The transaction is effectively an effort to cap long-term rates, and the Treasury retains the ability to get more aggressive with this tool should 30-year yields continue pressing higher.Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-17/national/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-17/national/The market received soft inflation data for July along with weaker-than-expected Retail Sales, which together have lowered the probability of near-term interest rate hikes: July Core CPI +0.215% month-over-month and +2.498% year-over-year, with the 3-month annualized Core CPI now running at +1.6% - trending toward the Fed's 2.0% target - and July Retail Sales falling -0.6% against a +0.1% estimate. The positive rate impulse from those prints was countered by a troubling July budget deficit of -$432 billion. After 10 months of the 2026 fiscal year the cumulative deficit stands at $1.8 trillion, projected to top $2 trillion by end of September; the national debt is approaching $40 trillion, and debt service has grown into one of the largest single line items in the federal budget. Concern about the long-term supply of Treasuries is putting upward pressure on long-end yields: last week's 30-year auction brought the highest auction yield since 2001 at 5.216%, and the long bond closed the week at 5.27%.Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-10/national/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-10/national/Throughout last week, oil prices fell on expectations of an agreement that would open the Strait of Hormuz to ship traffic. Over the weekend, however, Iran stated demands that must be met before the Strait opens - conditions the U.S. and Israel will not accept - reversing that optimism heading into this week. Friday's July Employment Report was notably weak: nonfarm payrolls came in at -23K, and May and June were revised down a combined 103K. The unemployment rate fell to 4.09%, but for the wrong reason - 250K workers stopped looking for work entirely, pushing labor force participation down to 61.1%, the lowest since February 2021 and prior to that a 50-year low. The decline in participation is attributed primarily to low immigration and ongoing baby boomer retirements.Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-03/national/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-03/national/Despite tame June inflation data - Core PCE rose +0.1% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, driven primarily by lower gasoline prices - the bond market sold off dramatically following the FOMC meeting and press conference. Inflation fears are driving long rates higher, while the short end of the yield curve remains anchored by a fed funds rate that has been held firm for the past seven months. Since the June FOMC meeting the yield curve has steepened meaningfully, with the 30-year Treasury now 33 basis points higher than it was in June. The long bond closed Friday at 5.21% - yields not seen since 2007 - and the 10-year closed at 4.73%.Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT