Weekly municipal fixed-income commentary focused on the Texas market.https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/en-ushttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-09-08/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-09-08/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. Renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to spike to $90/bbl for WTI, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.80% - its highest level since January 2025. Friday's August employment report came in stronger than forecast. Nonfarm payrolls rose +162K, and the prior two months were revised up by a combined 55K. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 4.09% to 4.14%. The 10-year again tested the 4.80% resistance level on the release, but yields fell back into the trading range once the market determined that wage growth was minimal and unlikely to add upward pressure to inflation.Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-31/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-31/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. The market-moving event of last week occurred on Friday when Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Warsh struck a decidedly hawkish tone and opened the door explicitly for future rate hikes. He stated that inflation has been too high for the past four-plus years and that current rates are not restrictive enough to meaningfully impair borrowing or lending - despite the fact that the housing and agriculture sectors are already hurting. With year-over-year Core PCE at 3.7%, inflation remains far from the Fed's stated 2.0% target. The market interpreted his comments as a clear signal that the Fed is more likely to raise rates in the near term. The 2-year Treasury note fell 12 basis points in response - reflecting the repricing of short-term rate expectations - while the long bond dropped only 1 basis point, a curve-flattening reaction consistent with a market pricing in tighter policy. The probability of a September 16th rate hike rose from 30% to over 50% on the speech alone.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-24/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-24/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. Long-term Treasury yields continued to rise to 20-year highs, with the long bond peaking at a 5.33% yield on Tuesday after the U.S. national debt broke through $40 trillion. Debt service on the national debt now exceeds $1 trillion annually - more than the entire defense budget and nearly as much as Medicare. The growing allocation of tax dollars to interest payments rather than domestic programs has become a structural force driving long-end yields higher. On Wednesday morning, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the Treasury would double the size of its longer-maturity debt buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion for the current debt funding quarter, effective September 9 through November 4. The Administration has advocated that interest rates are too high, and this buyback expansion is a policy tool intended to lower long-term rates. In theory, the action should flatten the yield curve - creating more demand for long maturities while increasing supply of shorter maturities and T-bills to fund the purchases. Initially the news rallied the long bond yield down to 5.18%, but by week's end the market sold off and the long bond closed at 5.28%. The transaction is effectively an effort to cap long-term rates, and the Treasury retains the ability to get more aggressive with this tool should 30-year yields continue pressing higher.Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-17/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-17/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. The market received soft inflation data for July along with weaker-than-expected Retail Sales, which together have lowered the probability of near-term interest rate hikes: July Core CPI +0.215% month-over-month and +2.498% year-over-year, with the 3-month annualized Core CPI now running at +1.6% - trending toward the Fed's 2.0% target - and July Retail Sales falling -0.6% against a +0.1% estimate. The positive rate impulse from those prints was countered by a troubling July budget deficit of -$432 billion. After 10 months of the 2026 fiscal year the cumulative deficit stands at $1.8 trillion, projected to top $2 trillion by end of September; the national debt is approaching $40 trillion, and debt service has grown into one of the largest single line items in the federal budget. Concern about the long-term supply of Treasuries is putting upward pressure on long-end yields: last week's 30-year auction brought the highest auction yield since 2001 at 5.216%, and the long bond closed the week at 5.27%.Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-10/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-10/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. Throughout last week, oil prices fell on expectations of an agreement that would open the Strait of Hormuz to ship traffic. Over the weekend, however, Iran stated demands that must be met before the Strait opens - conditions the U.S. and Israel will not accept - reversing that optimism heading into this week. Friday's July Employment Report was notably weak: nonfarm payrolls came in at -23K, and May and June were revised down a combined 103K. The unemployment rate fell to 4.09%, but for the wrong reason - 250K workers stopped looking for work entirely, pushing labor force participation down to 61.1%, the lowest since February 2021 and prior to that a 50-year low. The decline in participation is attributed primarily to low immigration and ongoing baby boomer retirements.Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-03/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-08-03/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. Despite tame June inflation data - Core PCE rose +0.1% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, driven primarily by lower gasoline prices - the bond market sold off dramatically following the FOMC meeting and press conference. Inflation fears are driving long rates higher, while the short end of the yield curve remains anchored by a fed funds rate that has been held firm for the past seven months. Since the June FOMC meeting the yield curve has steepened meaningfully, with the 30-year Treasury now 33 basis points higher than it was in June. The long bond closed Friday at 5.21% - yields not seen since 2007 - and the 10-year closed at 4.73%.Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-07-20/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-07-20/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. Last week's June inflation data came in much better than expected, surprising markets and meaningfully lowering the odds of a near-term rate hike: June CPI -0.4% with Core CPI unchanged, June PPI -0.3% with Core PPI +0.1%, and year-over-year Core CPI declining to 2.6% from 2.85%. The rapid decline was largely attributable to lower oil prices during June following de-escalation in the Middle East. Conditions have since reversed: renewed hostilities have emerged and the U.S. has reinstated its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing WTI back above $80 per barrel and bringing inflation fears back into market pricing.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-07-13/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-07-13/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. Treasury yields rose across the curve last week, increasing by 9-12 basis points, as geopolitical developments remained a primary driver of market sentiment. Hostilities in the Middle East re-emerged as Iran struck ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. targeted military sites in Iran, sending oil prices to the low $70s per barrel. President Trump declared that the ceasefire was over and described it as a waste of time. Iranian funds remain frozen, Iranian oil exports continue to be embargoed, and naval traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed again - developments that continue to influence both energy markets and interest rates.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-07-05/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-07-05/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. As we head into the week of July 6, 2026, the bond market's recent rally—fueled by optimism around the mid-June U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that reopened the Strait of Hormuz and eased energy pressures—faces a transition to cautious consolidation. WTI crude has settled well below $85/bbl (recently trading around $68-70), supporting lower inflation expectations and helping Treasuries hold gains amid sticky core inflation and patient Fed policy, with 10-year yields generally in the 4-4.5% range. Geopolitically, the 60-day negotiation window for nuclear and sanctions details continues, with implementation risks and skepticism about a durable peace keeping some risk premium alive, though reduced oil volatility and flowing supplies are broadly positive for risk assets and bonds. Focus this week shifts to U.S. data (PMI, FOMC minutes, jobless claims) for Fed clues, with bonds likely sensitive to any signs of renewed Middle East friction versus sustained de-escalation.Sun, 05 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-06-15/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-06-15/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. The bond market has been rallying over the last 2 weeks on "optimism" about a peace deal with Iran, as oil prices continued to drop. WTI closed under $85/bbl on Friday - the first time since April 17. Yesterday, both Iran and President Trump agreed to peace terms. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) will be signed this Friday, June 19, in Geneva, Switzerland. The devil will be in the details over the next 60 days on dismantling the nuclear stockpile.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-04-15/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-04-15/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. ISDs considering May tax-rate elections should finalize preliminary sizings now. PSF capacity remains ample and the program's credit enhancement delivers 25–40 bps of spread compression versus unenhanced AA paper. Fast-growth districts in I-35 and Houston metro corridors dominate the forward calendar.Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-03-23/texas/https://www.crewsmarketupdate.com/archive/2026-03-23/texas/Refunding: GREEN · New Money: GREEN. ISDs considering May tax-rate elections should finalize preliminary sizings now. PSF capacity remains ample and the program's credit enhancement delivers 25–40 bps of spread compression versus unenhanced AA paper. Fast-growth districts in I-35 and Houston metro corridors dominate the forward calendar.Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT