BOE and utility board callables of 2015–2017 vintage show 2–5% PV savings but require careful maturity-by-maturity selection given the steeper municipal curve.
Alabama Public School and College Authority paper remains deeply bid. Utility board new-money executions continue to benefit from investment-grade underlying credits and strong coverage metrics.
Boards of Education (BOEs) considering summer refundings should coordinate with the State Board's approval calendar now. Jefferson County and Madison County metros dominate new-money issuance; mid-sized cities are turning increasingly to utility board revenue structures to preserve GO capacity.
Alabama negotiated supply ~$290M this week. Two BOE warrant sales and a water works board refunding lead the calendar. Demand for 10–15 year warrants remains deep from SMA and regional bank buyers.
Utility board issuers with rate-setting latitude should review coverage metrics ahead of summer pricings — stronger DSC ratios materially improve spread execution versus comparable GO structures.
| Meeting | Hold | Cut | Hike |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 72% | 26% | 2% |
| Jun 2026 | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Jul 2026 | 30% | 68% | 2% |
| Sep 2026 | 18% | 80% | 2% |
Implied probabilities derived from 30-Day Fed Fund futures (CME FedWatch).
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 3.95% | -4 bp | 3.99% | 4.10% | 4.72% | |
| 5Y | 4.07% | -2 bp | 4.09% | 4.18% | 4.35% | |
| 10Y | 4.28% | +1 bp | 4.27% | 4.32% | 4.21% | |
| 30Y | 4.52% | +3 bp | 4.49% | 4.47% | 4.35% |
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | 2.78% | 3.15% | |
| 5Y | 2.85% | -2 bp | 2.87% | 2.94% | 2.98% | |
| 10Y | 3.12% | +1 bp | 3.11% | 3.16% | 2.95% | |
| 20Y | 3.75% | +2 bp | 3.73% | 3.77% | 3.42% | |
| 30Y | 4.02% | +3 bp | 3.99% | 4.00% | 3.68% |