Parish-level callable paper of 2016–2017 vintage shows 2–4% PV savings potential, but Bond Commission cadence and hurricane-season timing suggest waiting for Q2 rate normalization before committing to sizings.
LCDA and Louisiana Public Facilities Authority paper well-bid at MMD +20–30 bps. Coastal restoration and hurricane-hardening projects dominate the forward calendar with favorable windows.
Bond Commission approvals for Q2 negotiated sales tracking at typical seasonal pace. Parish GO deals benefit from strong in-state retail demand; SMA buyers absorb 15–25 year maturities at scales 5–10 bps inside national AAA MMD for IG parishes.
Louisiana negotiated supply ~$380M this week — large coastal protection authority deal plus two parish school board refundings. Deep demand for 10–15 year LCDA-enhanced structures from Gulf Coast regional banks seeking BQ-eligible paper.
Issuers with 2015–2017 callable bonds should prepare preliminary refunding analyses now. Coastal parishes should coordinate with FEMA Hazard Mitigation timelines — federal match dollars materially improve leverage on Q3 infrastructure deals.
| Meeting | Hold | Cut | Hike |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 72% | 26% | 2% |
| Jun 2026 | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Jul 2026 | 30% | 68% | 2% |
| Sep 2026 | 18% | 80% | 2% |
Implied probabilities derived from 30-Day Fed Fund futures (CME FedWatch).
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 3.95% | -4 bp | 3.99% | 4.10% | 4.72% | |
| 5Y | 4.07% | -2 bp | 4.09% | 4.18% | 4.35% | |
| 10Y | 4.28% | +1 bp | 4.27% | 4.32% | 4.21% | |
| 30Y | 4.52% | +3 bp | 4.49% | 4.47% | 4.35% |
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | 2.78% | 3.15% | |
| 5Y | 2.85% | -2 bp | 2.87% | 2.94% | 2.98% | |
| 10Y | 3.12% | +1 bp | 3.11% | 3.16% | 2.95% | |
| 20Y | 3.75% | +2 bp | 3.73% | 3.77% | 3.42% | |
| 30Y | 4.02% | +3 bp | 3.99% | 4.00% | 3.68% |