County and school system callables of 2016–2017 vintage show 4–7% PV savings. Metro Atlanta credits are particularly well-positioned given recent ratings upgrades and aggressive scale compression versus national AAA MMD.
Georgia Environmental Finance Authority and metro county GO deals clearing at scales 5–12 bps inside national MMD. State intercept programs continue to enhance school system paper materially.
Metro Atlanta counties (Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett) remain the most active in the forward calendar. School system issuers benefit from the state intercept program, which delivers 20–30 bps of spread compression versus non-enhanced structures.
Georgia negotiated supply ~$620M this week — a large metro GO, two school system refundings, and a GEFA water authority deal. Demand is deep across the curve; 20–25 year paper particularly well-bid.
Fast-growth suburban counties should evaluate new-money capacity against sales-tax SPLOST collections. Current SPLOST coverage ratios support meaningful leverage above prior plan-of-finance baselines.
| Meeting | Hold | Cut | Hike |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 72% | 26% | 2% |
| Jun 2026 | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Jul 2026 | 30% | 68% | 2% |
| Sep 2026 | 18% | 80% | 2% |
Implied probabilities derived from 30-Day Fed Fund futures (CME FedWatch).
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 3.95% | -4 bp | 3.99% | 4.10% | 4.72% | |
| 5Y | 4.07% | -2 bp | 4.09% | 4.18% | 4.35% | |
| 10Y | 4.28% | +1 bp | 4.27% | 4.32% | 4.21% | |
| 30Y | 4.52% | +3 bp | 4.49% | 4.47% | 4.35% |
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | 2.78% | 3.15% | |
| 5Y | 2.85% | -2 bp | 2.87% | 2.94% | 2.98% | |
| 10Y | 3.12% | +1 bp | 3.11% | 3.16% | 2.95% | |
| 20Y | 3.75% | +2 bp | 3.73% | 3.77% | 3.42% | |
| 30Y | 4.02% | +3 bp | 3.99% | 4.00% | 3.68% |