Muni/UST ratios remain at 12-month averages; marginal savings on select callable structures but window not yet optimal.
Intermediate MMD tighter month-over-month; strong primary pricing supports favorable new-issue execution.
Treasuries drifted firmer across the front end as markets priced incrementally more easing into the back half of the year. Belly of the curve led; long end lagged on supply concerns. FOMC commentary reinforced a patient stance pending progress on core services inflation.
Tax-exempt MMD held tight despite heavier visible supply. SMA retail demand continues to absorb intermediate maturities. High-grade AAA scales richly valued versus taxable equivalents; crossover buyers stepping in on 15-year-and-out paper.
Forward calendar remains elevated. Selectivity is paramount — deals with strong credit narratives and coupon structures aligned with investor demand are pricing through talk.
| Meeting | Hold | Cut | Hike |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 72% | 26% | 2% |
| Jun 2026 | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Jul 2026 | 30% | 68% | 2% |
| Sep 2026 | 18% | 80% | 2% |
Implied probabilities derived from 30-Day Fed Fund futures (CME FedWatch).
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 3.95% | -4 bp | 3.99% | 4.10% | 4.72% | |
| 5Y | 4.07% | -2 bp | 4.09% | 4.18% | 4.35% | |
| 10Y | 4.28% | +1 bp | 4.27% | 4.32% | 4.21% | |
| 30Y | 4.52% | +3 bp | 4.49% | 4.47% | 4.35% |
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | 2.78% | 3.15% | |
| 5Y | 2.85% | -2 bp | 2.87% | 2.94% | 2.98% | |
| 10Y | 3.12% | +1 bp | 3.11% | 3.16% | 2.95% | |
| 20Y | 3.75% | +2 bp | 3.73% | 3.77% | 3.42% | |
| 30Y | 4.02% | +3 bp | 3.99% | 4.00% | 3.68% |