County and BOE callables show PV savings, but state's credit narrative and limited in-state buyer base require careful distribution strategy. State intercept-enhanced deals materially outperform unenhanced peers.
West Virginia School Building Authority and BOE new-money deals continue to benefit from strong state program support. Appalachian infrastructure grants can meaningfully improve project leverage.
SBA-authorized school building financings dominate active issuance. County commissions and larger municipalities (Charleston, Huntington, Morgantown) round out the calendar. Smaller county issuers should evaluate WVSBA pool participation for efficiency.
West Virginia negotiated supply ~$95M this week — two SBA school building authority deals and a county infrastructure financing. Deep demand from regional banks and in-state SMA programs for 10–15 year state-enhanced structures.
Infrastructure-focused issuers should coordinate closely with federal Appalachian Regional Commission and state matching programs — federal grant match can improve all-in project economics by 15–30% versus straight debt financing.
| Meeting | Hold | Cut | Hike |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 72% | 26% | 2% |
| Jun 2026 | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Jul 2026 | 30% | 68% | 2% |
| Sep 2026 | 18% | 80% | 2% |
Implied probabilities derived from 30-Day Fed Fund futures (CME FedWatch).
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 3.95% | -4 bp | 3.99% | 4.10% | 4.72% | |
| 5Y | 4.07% | -2 bp | 4.09% | 4.18% | 4.35% | |
| 10Y | 4.28% | +1 bp | 4.27% | 4.32% | 4.21% | |
| 30Y | 4.52% | +3 bp | 4.49% | 4.47% | 4.35% |
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | 2.78% | 3.15% | |
| 5Y | 2.85% | -2 bp | 2.87% | 2.94% | 2.98% | |
| 10Y | 3.12% | +1 bp | 3.11% | 3.16% | 2.95% | |
| 20Y | 3.75% | +2 bp | 3.73% | 3.77% | 3.42% | |
| 30Y | 4.02% | +3 bp | 3.99% | 4.00% | 3.68% |