NYC and state authority callables are highly deal-specific. High-coupon current refundings remain executable; advance refunding opportunities constrained post-TCJA and subject to complex state tax analysis.
State-level and authority issuance remains heavy. Intermediate scales competitive but long-end concessions are meaningful given elevated forward calendar from state agencies.
State agencies (DASNY, NYS HFA, MTA) dominate supply. Municipal issuers outside NYC should coordinate pricing windows carefully around state agency calendars to avoid demand dilution. County and school district executions outside the five boroughs remain deeply bid from in-state SMAs.
New York negotiated supply ~$1.8B this week — DASNY lease revenue, MTA transportation revenue, and a large county GO package. Long-end concessions of 8–12 bps over talk required to clear size.
Issuers should evaluate forward sale and delayed delivery structures carefully — current rate environment provides meaningful optionality for issuers willing to lock pricing 90–180 days before delivery.
| Meeting | Hold | Cut | Hike |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 72% | 26% | 2% |
| Jun 2026 | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Jul 2026 | 30% | 68% | 2% |
| Sep 2026 | 18% | 80% | 2% |
Implied probabilities derived from 30-Day Fed Fund futures (CME FedWatch).
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 3.95% | -4 bp | 3.99% | 4.10% | 4.72% | |
| 5Y | 4.07% | -2 bp | 4.09% | 4.18% | 4.35% | |
| 10Y | 4.28% | +1 bp | 4.27% | 4.32% | 4.21% | |
| 30Y | 4.52% | +3 bp | 4.49% | 4.47% | 4.35% |
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | 2.78% | 3.15% | |
| 5Y | 2.85% | -2 bp | 2.87% | 2.94% | 2.98% | |
| 10Y | 3.12% | +1 bp | 3.11% | 3.16% | 2.95% | |
| 20Y | 3.75% | +2 bp | 3.73% | 3.77% | 3.42% | |
| 30Y | 4.02% | +3 bp | 3.99% | 4.00% | 3.68% |