County and municipal callables in the 2016–2018 window show 3–6% PV savings, but rating migration and AMBAC-era enhancement expiry on older paper warrant credit-by-credit review before committing.
Rural hospital authority and water district new-money deals clearing at MMD +30–50 bps with strong in-state bank demand. USDA Rural Development subsidies continue to materially improve project economics.
Hinds, DeSoto, and Harrison county issuers remain the most active in the forward calendar. Mississippi Development Bank pool financings provide strong execution for smaller counties and municipalities seeking scale efficiencies below $20M.
Mississippi negotiated supply ~$140M this week, led by two county school district financings and a rural water association deal. Bank-qualified demand is strong for issues below $10M.
Rural hospital and water infrastructure issuers should engage USDA Rural Development early. 40-year amortization flexibility combined with interest rate subsidies can reduce all-in TIC by 80–150 bps versus straight public offering.
| Meeting | Hold | Cut | Hike |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 72% | 26% | 2% |
| Jun 2026 | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Jul 2026 | 30% | 68% | 2% |
| Sep 2026 | 18% | 80% | 2% |
Implied probabilities derived from 30-Day Fed Fund futures (CME FedWatch).
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 3.95% | -4 bp | 3.99% | 4.10% | 4.72% | |
| 5Y | 4.07% | -2 bp | 4.09% | 4.18% | 4.35% | |
| 10Y | 4.28% | +1 bp | 4.27% | 4.32% | 4.21% | |
| 30Y | 4.52% | +3 bp | 4.49% | 4.47% | 4.35% |
| Tenor | Current | Δ WoW | Prior Wk | Prior Mo | Prior Yr | 8-Wk Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | 2.78% | 3.15% | |
| 5Y | 2.85% | -2 bp | 2.87% | 2.94% | 2.98% | |
| 10Y | 3.12% | +1 bp | 3.11% | 3.16% | 2.95% | |
| 20Y | 3.75% | +2 bp | 3.73% | 3.77% | 3.42% | |
| 30Y | 4.02% | +3 bp | 3.99% | 4.00% | 3.68% |